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Ruffer

July 27, 2020

“Value investing is dead! Warren Buffet knows nothing! Long live drawing random Scrabble tiles out of a bag to pick stocks!”

So says day-trading Twitter star Dave Portnoy and his army of fellow sports fans-turned stock speculators. Portnoy’s logic? Stocks always go up, courtesy of Federal Reserve stimulus.

“Value investing is dead! Warren Buffet knows nothing! Long live drawing random Scrabble tiles out of a bag to pick stocks!”

So says day-trading Twitter star Dave Portnoy and his army of fellow sports fans-turned stock speculators. Portnoy’s logic? Stocks always go up, courtesy of Federal Reserve stimulus.

June 9, 2020

World order has never been so complex for investors. The US and China have entered a new phase of long-term strategic global competition. America has moved decisively from engagement to containment of China’s technological, economic and military power. Globalisation has created new arenas for renewed ‘Great Power’ competition: financial markets; cyber and outer space; technology; the corporate world. As world order bifurcates, investors are on the front line. 

World order has never been so complex for investors. The US and China have entered a new phase of long-term strategic global competition. America has moved decisively from engagement to containment of China’s technological, economic and military power. Globalisation has created new arenas for renewed ‘Great Power’ competition: financial markets; cyber and outer space; technology; the corporate world. As world order bifurcates, investors are on the front line.

May 7, 2020

The valuation of financial assets is based on expectations of future returns—but what if the next half century is vastly different from the previous one? Environmental changes are affecting companies and countries in a number of ways. Investors need to understand the key environmental trends and grapple with the implications for geopolitics and markets.

The valuation of financial assets is based on expectations of future returns—but what if the next half century is vastly different from the previous one? Environmental changes are affecting companies and countries in a number of ways. Investors need to understand the key environmental trends and grapple with the implications for geopolitics and markets.

April 29, 2020

Duncan MacInnes, investment director, discusses Covid-19: how it has changed the investment landscape, the impact on the Ruffer portfolio and what could happen next.

Duncan MacInnes, investment director, discusses Covid-19: how it has changed the investment landscape, the impact on the Ruffer portfolio and what could happen next.

This is the first episode of a new series of podcasts, where Ruffer will be exploring the investment universe and sharing their interpretation of what’s going on.

“It’s our view that we are moving through an economic regime change,” MacInnes (pictured) said.

April 9, 2020

The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead.

The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead.

It was the avalanche we have long feared. From record peak to bear market, the S&P fell faster during the ‘corona crash’ than ever before, as the chart below shows.

At peak turmoil, conventional offsets (bonds, gold) proved flaky friends: investors sold what they could, not what they perhaps should. Specialist crash protections allowed Ruffer portfolios to hold their ground.

March 23, 2020

Seeking to escape the inflation of the 1970s, policymakers have inadvertently engineered an equally powerful deflation machine. Over the past 30 years, this has been mightily reinforced by the transformation of China’s economy and the impact of technology.

Seeking to escape the inflation of the 1970s, policymakers have inadvertently engineered an equally powerful deflation machine. Over the past 30 years, this has been mightily reinforced by the transformation of China’s economy and the impact of technology.

March 16, 2020

Investment fund managers are appealing for calm among investors as the coronavirus pandemic spreads, anticipating a six-month market disruption but divided on if there will emerge a “new normal”.

Investment fund managers are appealing for calm among investors as the coronavirus pandemic spreads, anticipating a six-month market disruption but divided on if there will emerge a “new normal”.

Amundi Asset Management said the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak should prove “short-lived” to the first half of the year with the mobilisation of fiscal tools, leaving the medium-term potential growth of economies intact.

March 12, 2020

February saw concerns over coronavirus truly go global, as cases emerged across Europe and the US, shattering the illusion that this was an infection limited to China.

February saw concerns over coronavirus truly go global, as cases emerged across Europe and the US, shattering the illusion that this was an infection limited to China.

Whilst public safety and containment of the outbreak must clearly be the primary concern, for financial markets the key question is will the virus cause a recession?

February 26, 2020

The epicentre of risk in the financial system has moved. In 2008, it was leverage in the banks. Today, the equivalent risk is in the asset management industry, where a series of interlocking factors have come together to make markets increasingly ‘avalanche prone’. There is an illusion of stability. Low volatility has lulled many to sleep. We believe this will end badly—and are positioning portfolios to protect our clients from the avalanche.

This is the first of two white papers published by our chief investment officer, Henry Maxey, on the current investment climate and where we see the risks. The second paper, Dismantling the Deflation Machine, will be published in March.

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