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Ruffer

April 29, 2020

Duncan MacInnes, investment director, discusses Covid-19: how it has changed the investment landscape, the impact on the Ruffer portfolio and what could happen next.

Duncan MacInnes, investment director, discusses Covid-19: how it has changed the investment landscape, the impact on the Ruffer portfolio and what could happen next.

This is the first episode of a new series of podcasts, where Ruffer will be exploring the investment universe and sharing their interpretation of what’s going on.

“It’s our view that we are moving through an economic regime change,” MacInnes (pictured) said.

April 9, 2020

The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead.

The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead.

It was the avalanche we have long feared. From record peak to bear market, the S&P fell faster during the ‘corona crash’ than ever before, as the chart below shows.

At peak turmoil, conventional offsets (bonds, gold) proved flaky friends: investors sold what they could, not what they perhaps should. Specialist crash protections allowed Ruffer portfolios to hold their ground.

March 23, 2020

Seeking to escape the inflation of the 1970s, policymakers have inadvertently engineered an equally powerful deflation machine. Over the past 30 years, this has been mightily reinforced by the transformation of China’s economy and the impact of technology.

Seeking to escape the inflation of the 1970s, policymakers have inadvertently engineered an equally powerful deflation machine. Over the past 30 years, this has been mightily reinforced by the transformation of China’s economy and the impact of technology.

March 16, 2020

Investment fund managers are appealing for calm among investors as the coronavirus pandemic spreads, anticipating a six-month market disruption but divided on if there will emerge a “new normal”.

Investment fund managers are appealing for calm among investors as the coronavirus pandemic spreads, anticipating a six-month market disruption but divided on if there will emerge a “new normal”.

Amundi Asset Management said the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak should prove “short-lived” to the first half of the year with the mobilisation of fiscal tools, leaving the medium-term potential growth of economies intact.

March 12, 2020

February saw concerns over coronavirus truly go global, as cases emerged across Europe and the US, shattering the illusion that this was an infection limited to China.

February saw concerns over coronavirus truly go global, as cases emerged across Europe and the US, shattering the illusion that this was an infection limited to China.

Whilst public safety and containment of the outbreak must clearly be the primary concern, for financial markets the key question is will the virus cause a recession?

February 26, 2020

The epicentre of risk in the financial system has moved. In 2008, it was leverage in the banks. Today, the equivalent risk is in the asset management industry, where a series of interlocking factors have come together to make markets increasingly ‘avalanche prone’. There is an illusion of stability. Low volatility has lulled many to sleep. We believe this will end badly—and are positioning portfolios to protect our clients from the avalanche.

This is the first of two white papers published by our chief investment officer, Henry Maxey, on the current investment climate and where we see the risks. The second paper, Dismantling the Deflation Machine, will be published in March.

February 12, 2020

Ronald Reagan ran in 1984 with a famous TV commercial which started with the line ‘It’s morning in America’. This was to signify that the best was yet to come. We think there is a chance, just a chance, that the UK could also be at the start of an exciting period.

Ronald Reagan ran in 1984 with a famous TV commercial which started with the line ‘It’s morning in America’. This was to signify that the best was yet to come. We think there is a chance, just a chance, that the UK could also be at the start of an exciting period.

January 27, 2020

How should global business families of wealth navigate the choppy investment waters in the year ahead? Is a global economic recession looming and what does that mean for family investors? Emma Rutter, investment director at Ruffer LLP, urges diversification in portfolios, says environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria should be a prism to view all investments through and explains why “liquidity will be king”.

How should global business families of wealth navigate the choppy investment waters in the year ahead? Is a global economic recession looming and what does that mean for family investors? Emma Rutter, investment director at Ruffer LLP, urges diversification in portfolios, says environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria should be a prism to view all investments through and explains why “liquidity will be king”.

Where does Ruffer see investment opportunities in 2020?

January 9, 2020

The year of 2019 was one when many of the six impossible things before breakfast remain unresolved—with the shining exception of Brexit, and the wider resolution of domestic politics. We can still feel the political earthquake which struck the UK last month—we cannot yet see the effect of it. Most political earthquakes, when they happen, are scarcely discerned, and even those which are perceived for what they are, do not easily reveal the new pathways created from the changed landscape.

The year of 2019 was one when many of the six impossible things before breakfast remain unresolved—with the shining exception of Brexit, and the wider resolution of domestic politics. We can still feel the political earthquake which struck the UK last month—we cannot yet see the effect of it. Most political earthquakes, when they happen, are scarcely discerned, and even those which are perceived for what they are, do not easily reveal the new pathways created from the changed landscape.

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